• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1167

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 21:26:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062126
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062125=20
    NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-062300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1167
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0425 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...portions of Northern New Jersey into the New York
    City Metropolitan Area

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336...

    Valid 062125Z - 062300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A relatively concentrated swath of damaging gusts may
    occur with an organizing line of thunderstorms across northern
    portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336. Brief instances of gusts
    in the 65-75 mph range are possible with the stronger storms.

    DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS mosaic radar data depicts an organizing
    line of thunderstorms, with some forward bowing of the leading line
    of higher reflectivity. KOKX and KDIX radars also show an
    intensifying swath of higher inbound velocities at the 0.5 degree
    scan, roughly 8 kft above ground level. Latest RAP forecast
    soundings show 0-3km lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km (roughly at/below
    8 kft), suggesting that efficient downward momentum transport of the
    stronger winds in the 850-600 mb layer is likely. Combined with the
    impacts of evaporative cooling in the sfc-500 mb layer (where
    notable drying is present), a swath consisting of multiple damaging
    gusts appear likely. Latest mesoanalysis shows 2000+ MLCAPE in
    advance of this line, fueled by 90+ F surface temperatures and 70+ F
    dewpoints. As such, locally higher damaging gust potential is
    expected to accompany the line of storms to the Atlantic Seaboard,
    including the New York City Metropolitan area within the next 2
    hours.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tScEEu4rz6ALr-elLvqqsfjBbDmbywCLECeJQAgVMhyf_Na9WFyZd4DLEx9ysyp-a474uDjy$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40817589 41287513 41437464 41457420 41317381 41097347
    40777324 40437342 40407410 40497517 40817589=20



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