• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1165

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 20:37:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062037
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062037=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-062200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1165
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...southern Montana far northern Wyoming.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 062037Z - 062200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms including a few supercells may pose a risk
    for damaging winds and hail this evening. A weather watch is
    possible but uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible satellite imagery showed towering
    cumulus developing off the higher terrain of southern Montana and
    northern Wyoming. Along the western fringes of a northwesterly flow
    shortwave trough, storm development appears probable in the next
    hour or two as remaining inhibition weakens. Within a warming and
    destabilizing environment with around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and 30-40
    kts of effective shear, supercells are expected to be the primary
    storm mode. Mid-level lapse rates while not overly steep around
    7-7.5 C/km should be sufficient for the development of large hail,
    especially with stronger supercells. Damaging wind gusts will also
    be likely given the well-mixed boundary layer with temperature
    dewpoint spreads near 30 degrees F.

    High-res guidance has been inconsistent on the coverage of storms
    that develop later this evening. This is likely due to weak forcing
    for ascent within the upslope flow regime limiting model-based
    convective initiation. Given satellite trends, it appears possible
    that isolated to widely scattered storms may develop and track
    southeastward across Montana and portions of northern Wyoming. The
    convective parameter space suggests a weather watch is possible,
    though uncertainty remains.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uOXPecJEYEvelcn97f2iuUY4GfJ7HeMnFiCS9veB3cwcJkHNOxITMHGIrcJJtpuTPlWCmumN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 47641009 47650935 47610845 46540611 46150563 44620512
    43840600 44030686 44670763 45590952 46251061 47171080
    47641009=20



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