• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1163

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 18:45:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061845
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061844=20
    WIZ000-061945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1163
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0144 PM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 061844Z - 061945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along a
    stationary front this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and large hail
    are expected. A watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have recently developed along the intersection of the lake breeze and stationary front across eastern
    Wisconsin. A recent wind gust to 56 mph near Manitowoc suggests
    these storms are beginning to intensify. Daytime heating over a
    broken cloud deck has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the
    low to mid 80s with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F. 1500-2000
    J/kg of MLCAPE will support robust updraft development within a
    weak/moderately sheared environment of 30-40 kts effective shear
    along the front. Organized clusters/short line segments and a few
    supercells appear likely to evolve through the early afternoon.
    Somewhat enhanced flow ahead of a weak MCV may support a locally
    stronger vertical shear and the risk for a brief tornado with a
    stronger supercell where flow surface flow is backed along the
    stationary front. Given the increasing convective
    coverage/intensity, a weather watch may be needed shortly.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qui0QLXUlbFc95PSnDbxkWo_j1Vv10hBH70m069zPGaK-ea50yOT34o1JvXTzT_iNAANamM8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43058788 43068893 43528958 44218969 44908929 45118859
    45038794 44798743 44118742 43608741 43058788=20



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