• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1161

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 16:34:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061633
    SPC MCD 061633=20 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-06190=

    Mesoscale Discussion 1161
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1133 AM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...MA...CT...RI...NJ...portions of southern NY and
    eastern PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 061633Z - 061900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    move east-southeast across the area this afternoon. Damaging winds
    will be the primary threat, with hail also possible with the
    strongest storms. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will
    likely be required to address the developing risk.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms have
    developed over western NY as of 16z within an air mass characterized
    by moderate MLCAPE and generally weak (at or below 25 kts) effective
    shear values. Despite the lack of large-scale forcing, additional
    thunderstorm development is anticipated over central portions of NY
    and in the vicinity of a surface trough from the Delaware Valley
    into southern New England as remaining weak MLCIN is removed through
    daytime heating, with multiple multicell clusters moving generally east/southeast this afternoon. A belt of enhanced westerly flow
    averaging 35-40 kts will result in a risk for damaging downburst
    winds with the stronger storms and clusters. Generally weak
    deep-layer shear and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper the hail
    risk, however a few stronger updrafts may be capable of marginally
    severe hail.

    Given the expected development, one or more Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches is expected by early afternoon.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uPsXKN3Q74ruwAu_sW5ZXvC73YFmVhyWj__mr5_OBDO2YDQsXitQm2O8RB4q1ZOqpAPnsqxT$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41687786 42607741 43047427 42637193 42187107 41527111
    40957203 40427336 40127375 39457420 39487512 39747601
    40827728 41687786=20

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