• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1160

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 14:34:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 061434
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061434=20
    FLZ000-061700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1160
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0934 AM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 061434Z - 061700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk for a few tornadoes will increase through the
    late morning and afternoon in association with Tropical Storm Elsa.

    DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Elsa was located approximately 55 miles west-northwest of Key West, FL at 14z and continuing to move
    north-northwest at 12 mph (see the most recent NHC advisory for
    complete details). Latest radar data from KBYX sampled 0-1 km SRH
    in excess of 200 m2/s2, and stronger convective elements were
    exhibiting transient rotation offshore of Monroe County. As the
    center of Elsa continues moving north-northwest while slowly
    strengthening today, low-level wind fields over southwest/central FL
    will strengthen. Widespread dew points in the 70s will contribute
    to moderate SBCAPE, and these conditions will become more favorable
    for a few tornadoes to develop within outer bands from the FL Keys
    north across southwest and into the central FL peninsula through
    this afternoon, likely continuing into the evening.

    Observational trends are being monitored and a Tornado Watch is
    likely prior to 17z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oAOMZkNXHcQNk5t74D4c-9e1HSqmlYmD55UheO2_kv-JQRnJrmPPu6jk19QclY4lnvr7Y3GG$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

    LAT...LON 26848270 27728302 28298285 28788227 28738151 28148106
    26878095 25668085 25028091 24618138 24468181 24658223
    25898230 26848270=20



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