• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1159

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 04:50:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060449
    SPC MCD 060449=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1159
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of north central Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 060449Z - 060645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A small cluster of strong storms may persist into the 2-4
    AM MDT time frame, progressing east-southeastward across parts of
    north central Montana. This may include continuing risk to produce
    some hail and locally strong surface gusts, but potential for
    substantive intensification appears low.

    DISCUSSION...A small, but organized cluster of storms, with an
    embedded MCV, has crossed the international border to the north of
    Cutbank. This activity appears supported by forcing for ascent
    associated with warm advection along a baroclinic zone around 700
    mb, ahead of a low amplitude wave within the westerlies. Latest
    Rapid Refresh suggests that this could persist east-southeastward
    across parts of north central Montana, north through northeast of
    Great Falls, into the 08-10Z time frame, before weakening.=20

    The deep-layer westerly mean wind vector across this region is
    rather weak (10-20 kt), but shear is strong due to profiles
    characterized by veering of low-level easterlies to modest
    westerlies at mid-levels. So, despite inflow of only weakly
    unstable air (up to 500+ J/kg), and the tendency for this inflow to
    become even less unstable as activity progresses eastward, a risk
    for hail and strong wind gusts may linger until storms dimimish.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qx57-MOhaP2misGqs-XeKXYep5nlGGdW1Jc9Ui9DfiHMAk1l6m9Op8Y0gxxRwad-F_xssyGC$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 48921144 48110923 47830992 48311132 48581230 48921144=20

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