• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1158

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 6 01:14:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 060114
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060114=20
    NYZ000-060315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1158
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0814 PM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021

    Areas affected...Northern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 060114Z - 060315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of storms may produce isolated wind damaging this
    evening as it moves into northern New York, though a watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...KTYX imagery shows a line of storms moving across Lake
    Ontario towards upstate NY. Surface observations from the western
    shore of Ontario reported wind gusts upwards of 25-35 mph, and
    velocity data show a few pockets of stronger winds aloft within the
    line. A few isolated cells developing across NY ahead of this line
    suggest that the thermodynamic environment remains supportive of
    convection despite the onset of diurnal cooling and increasing
    low-level stability. Modest mid-level flow between 30-40 knots (as
    sampled by regional VWPs) will help maintain the line at least for
    another 1-2 hours amid waning instability. The general expectation
    is for a few instances of damaging winds as the line moves onshore
    before gradually weakening across central NY later tonight. Given
    the expected weakening trend of the line, a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 07/06/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qmxSBUXi1jNsDiVNqXUidwIQKIBP3EOpFCzERxmzO9mioKZbbaejmV8iYpWvPBg2-OixErmv$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43417834 43867745 44407654 44737604 44997551 44847480
    44377458 43927461 43377504 43097566 42857644 42767753
    42987802 43417834=20



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