• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1156

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 5 19:48:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 051948
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051947=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-052145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1156
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Wisconsin into northern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051947Z - 052145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms may produce marginal wind or hail over the
    next few hours from eastern Wisconsin across northern Lower
    Michigan.

    DISCUSSION...A warm and moist air mass is in place ahead of a weak
    front over northern WI, with westerly low-level mean winds spreading
    this air mass eastward into Lower MI resulting in over 2000 J/kg
    MLCAPE.

    Most convection this afternoon has been focused along the western
    shores of Lake Huron and Green Bay, but a gradual increase in
    convection is occurring along the front farther west. In addition,
    sporadic attempts have been noted across parts of northern Lower MI
    as well, though lack of convergence is likely hampering further
    development there.

    As heating continues, storm coverage is expected to increase with
    activity developing into northeast WI. Given the westerly low-level
    feed of theta-e, some of this activity may eventually cross Lake MI,
    where an unstable air mass awaits to the east. Though shear is weak,
    mean wind speeds and ample PWAT suggest locally strong outflow winds
    may occur, and the strongest cells may briefly produce marginal
    hail.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s6b1fM6F04ReMBz5yrG75wtHKuPSDiiP4tKUj-GvJUDxIA2BXD_qbSEZAnQnp1rp1O-dFe6C$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43768563 43808740 43888865 44018955 44258973 44578976
    44948956 45258811 45508706 45788553 45768496 45648405
    45248323 44688298 44418324 43818444 43768563=20



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