• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1154

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 5 05:27:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 050527
    SPC MCD 050526=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1154
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1226 AM CDT Mon Jul 05 2021

    Areas affected...southeastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of
    the Texas South Plains area

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 050526Z - 050730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms moving southward along the eastern New Mexico/Texas
    border will continue to pose a risk for locally strong/damaging
    winds for at least the next hour or two. A WW is not anticipated at
    this time, due to small spatial extent of this risk.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined,
    west-to-east-oriented band of storms moving southward across eastern
    New Mexico and adjacent portions of Texas, with 80 kt inbound
    velocity indicated by radar -- indicative of a well-organized band.=20
    With a 20 to 25 kt southeasterly low-level jet feeding this
    convection, per recent WSR-88D VWP data, expect this southward
    propagation to continue.

    While a leading band of convection ahead of this main/stronger band
    has led to some airmass stabilization (reducing temperatures into
    the mid 70s and dewpoints to near 60), low-level theta-e advection
    ongoing in conjunction with the low-level jet may continue to
    sustain this rather well-organized band of storms for at least
    another couple of hours. During this time, strong/damaging winds
    will be possible locally. However, given small spatial extent of
    this risk, and questions as to duration, preclude immediate
    consideration for ww issuance. If storms persist for another hour
    or two, and it appears they may encroach on the more moist/unstable
    airmass over the southeastern New Mexico vicinity, the need for a
    new WW may be reconsidered.

    ..Goss/Grams.. 07/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sK76-t7xpy9yX2XptyVvvG6YmjxDZoM5YYbZGiwRjaHU6u2IdpZkpVtctWMNjj_Fr8Nu7QZN$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35050435 34950363 34930241 34370221 33310241 33020321
    33370422 34490485 34870486 35050435=20

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