Mesoscale Discussion 1153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021
Areas affected...Parts of east central New Mexico and adjacent west
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333...
Valid 050220Z - 050345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333
SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm may continue to develop across or
just to the west and southwest of Clovis, NM, through 9-10 PM MDT,
before diminishing later this evening. A new severe weather watch
is not anticipated, but portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333
may be locally extended in time for an hour or two.
DISCUSSION...While upscale growth has not occurred, an isolated
long-lived supercell is maintaining considerable strength as it
approaches the Clovis, NM area. There may be a strong downburst
ongoing, and associated outflow has undercut the lower/mid-level
mesocyclone, but latest objective analysis suggests that moderate
to strong south-southwesterly low-level storm relative winds may
maintain inflow of moist air with sizable CAPE into the updraft for
at least another or two. As this occurs, stronger convection should
tend to propagate near or just to the west through southwest of
Clovis through 03-04Z.
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