• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1152

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 5 00:12:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 050012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050011=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-050215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1152
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0711 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Montana...far Northeast Wyoming...and far
    Northwest South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 050011Z - 050215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may become more organized this evening, posing an
    isolated wind/hail threat. Watch issuance unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a cluster of somewhat disorganized
    but marginally intense storms over southeast portions of Montana.
    Strong diabatic heating has resulting in hot surface temperatures
    into the mid 90s F, yielding strong low-level lapse rates. Weak easterly/upslope flow has allowed surface dew point temperatures to
    rise to near 50 F in proximity to the ongoing convection. The large temperature/dew point spread is resulting in inverted-v soundings,
    with weak instability (MLCAPE approaching 500 J/kg).

    Despite the weak low-level easterly flow, amid marginal westerly
    flow aloft, deep-layer shear remains rather weak (effective shear
    perhaps near 20 kt). However, forecast soundings indicate some
    potential for an increase in effective shear throughout the evening,
    perhaps approaching 30-35 kt by 03z, as low-level southeasterly flow
    increases. Thus, the ongoing convection may become a bit more
    organized if it can persist for a few more hours. Should this occur,
    storms will pose a threat for strong outflow wind gusts and severe
    hail. At this time, the threat is expected to remain fairly
    isolated/brief, and thus, watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/05/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oBF-sRoXQ9C05K7vmdQUOJXmNo-WcorEU0jDr1IEVl-g4o9FrMq5705IrXoy_DRWOiwBWyTR$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44020469 44340601 44720729 45620728 46140637 46210441
    45760324 44670362 44020469=20



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