• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1150

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 4 23:31:56 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1625441521-59769-2620
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 042331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042331=20
    MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-050100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1150
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0631 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021

    Areas affected...North-Central Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042331Z - 050100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated convective development may increase in coverage,
    posing a hail/wind threat. Watch possible.

    DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows a developing area of cumulus
    from near International Falls, MN, southward into north-central
    portions of Minnesota. This convective development is occurring
    along a surface trough, with a concentrated area of dew point
    temperatures at or near 70 F. RAP soundings indicate the presence of
    a weak cap that is likely being breached by the zone of enhanced
    low-level moisture along with weak ascent aloft from an approaching
    mid-level short-wave trough. The broader ambient environment is
    characterized by MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and modest effective shear
    near 20 kt.

    There remains considerable uncertainty on storm coverage and
    intensity in the next few hours. Short-term convection-allowing
    guidance suggests storms coverage may remain mostly isolated.
    However, if the aforementioned observational trends continue, the
    environment should be supportive of organized convection, favoring
    multicells, with a hail/wind threat. Thus, watch issuance remains
    possible at this time pending short-term convective trends that will
    continue to be monitored.

    ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s3F1UxfoAxyf-uvrm-exT8T1oGVZvo3LfNNP9707pR2iOjLQRp8ys0OuQOOVdvvuxE4n5VRz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 45829279 46249451 47669466 48529382 48199166 47628969
    46389005 45639118 45829279=20



    ------------=_1625441521-59769-2620
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1625441521-59769-2620--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)