Mesoscale Discussion 1150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021
Areas affected...North-Central Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 042331Z - 050100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated convective development may increase in coverage,
posing a hail/wind threat. Watch possible.
DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows a developing area of cumulus
from near International Falls, MN, southward into north-central
portions of Minnesota. This convective development is occurring
along a surface trough, with a concentrated area of dew point
temperatures at or near 70 F. RAP soundings indicate the presence of
a weak cap that is likely being breached by the zone of enhanced
low-level moisture along with weak ascent aloft from an approaching
mid-level short-wave trough. The broader ambient environment is
characterized by MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg and modest effective shear
near 20 kt.
There remains considerable uncertainty on storm coverage and
intensity in the next few hours. Short-term convection-allowing
guidance suggests storms coverage may remain mostly isolated.
However, if the aforementioned observational trends continue, the
environment should be supportive of organized convection, favoring
multicells, with a hail/wind threat. Thus, watch issuance remains
possible at this time pending short-term convective trends that will
continue to be monitored.
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at email@example.com and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1625441521-59769-2620--