• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1149

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 4 23:29:54 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042329
    SPC MCD 042329=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1149
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0629 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021

    Areas affected...Northern and central New Mexico/west Texas border

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333...

    Valid 042329Z - 050100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333

    SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may transition to an upscale growing
    storm cluster near the Texas/New Mexico border area, and approach
    the Clovis vicinity by 8-10 PM, accompanied by continuing potential
    for severe hail and increasing risk for severe surface gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered intense thunderstorm activity, including
    isolated supercells, is ongoing south through east-southeast of the
    Raton Mesa vicinity. This is within an environment with
    thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates,
    and a relatively moist, well mixed boundary layer characterized by
    large CAPE. Although deep-layer northwesterly mean ambient flow is
    rather weak (on the order of 15 kt), a belt of 20+ kt
    north-northwesterly flow, to the west/southwest of a weak mid-level
    trough digging through the central Great Plains, is contributing to
    strong deep-layer shear. This environment should remain supportive
    of at least isolated supercell development into the 01-03Z time
    frame, with a tendency for activity to continue to propagate south-southwestward.

    It is possible that the interface of the more strongly heated/
    deeply mixed boundary-layer air and the deeper, moist boundary-
    layer air may become the focus for intensifying and upscale growing
    convection by early evening. This extends from just to the west of
    Dalhart, southward near the Texas/New Mexico border area, into the
    Clovis, NM vicinity. If this occurs, an organizing cluster of
    storms with increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts may
    eventually evolve.

    ..Kerr.. 07/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oGxC2_nf5u7yCcODDqUimEGTaBTKaQ-59LobhoLovS4f9Amicisb11ba0hYqc1iqb5NVb9fR$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35930297 35810263 35390240 34820242 34470258 34200286
    34260349 34710358 35600330 35930297=20

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