• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1148

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 4 20:16:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042016
    SPC MCD 042016=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1148
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021

    Areas affected...portions of western and northwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042016Z - 042145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe storms may evolve along a north south
    boundary across western and northwestern Kansas this
    afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be
    possible. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible weather

    DISCUSSION...Beneath a weak mid-level trough transiting the Plains,
    afternoon visible satellite imagery showed towering cumulus and weak thunderstorms developing along a north-south convergence line across
    portions of western Kansas. Within a warm and moist airmass with
    dewpoints near 70 F, SPC mesoanalysis shows the developing
    convection will have access to 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. While
    initially in a weak shear environment, with less than 25 kts of
    effective shear, somewhat enhanced northwesterly flow will
    overspread Southwestern Kansas later this afternoon as the main
    trough continues southeastward. Initially multicellular storms are
    expected, but gradual organization into a couple clusters or a
    supercell or two will be possible. Damaging wind gusts appear to be
    the primary severe threat given the expected storm mode and
    organization. While not overly strong, mid-level lapse rates around
    7 to 7.5 C/ km steepen with westward extent and will likely support
    some hail potential with the strongest updrafts, especially if a
    supercell or two develops. Given the favorable convective parameter
    space for damaging winds and hail, a weather watch may be needed.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qGTtrCDUHJwRe0YZHFeS7MN4qWheEQ1zjeZ6n1Xnvs4xKdwEFWDdydFWS-ZHtEhL_N1wBrfP$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38020164 39240136 39570096 39530041 39309991 38619980
    37599985 37070029 37020086 37010122 37120150 38020164=20

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