• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1147

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 4 19:36:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 041936
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041936=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1147
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0236 PM CDT Sun Jul 04 2021

    Areas affected...northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado into
    the Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 041936Z - 042130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase over the Sangre De Cristo
    mountains, and within a surface trough extending east into the
    Panhandles. Some of the storms may produce large hail and locally
    damaging gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows the remnants of an MCV over
    western OK and the TX Panhandle where a pockets of cooler
    temperatures remain. Substantial CU is noted on satellite imagery
    west of this feature and into northeast NM where temperatures
    continue to warm. Meanwhile, convection is slow building over the
    Sangre De Cristo mountains.

    Continued heating and ample moisture will support scattered strong
    to severe storms. Weak northwest flow aloft atop the surface
    southerlies will elongate hodographs favorably for a few long-lived
    cells. Supercells will be possible for cells moving due-south or
    southwestward, maximizing the meager SRH.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/04/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pjtDSM8qIDkZyRRClV27cr44HjY072Yo5-nUuC_y1bXhr8LsVj9EXxj9zwTGMc5Efn1KGPxM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35410553 35870531 36330515 36930490 37750507 37800462
    37370325 37010219 36730161 36410118 35740097 34770112
    34430164 34340269 34480357 34640430 35410553=20



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