• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1145

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 3 23:21:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032321
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032321=20
    AZZ000-040145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1145
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0621 PM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central Arizona including the Greater
    Phoenix Metropolitan area

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032321Z - 040145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with increasingly strong surface gusts and
    blowing dust may develop off the Mogollon Rim into the lower deserts
    of central Arizona, including the Greater Phoenix metro area, by 6-8
    PM MST.

    DISCUSSION...Destabilization and orographic forcing for ascent have
    been sufficient to contribute to initiation of considerable
    thunderstorm development along the Mogollon Rim. Activity is well
    underway to the northwest of the Greater Phoenix metro area, where consolidating outflow is already slowly beginning to advance
    south-southwest of the higher terrain. This probably is being aided
    by the downward transfer of weak to modest northerly to easterly
    flow in the 700-500 mb layer. However, southerly high-level flow is
    allowing for anvil level cloud cover and precipitation to trail to
    the north of developing outflow, and strong differential heating to
    the south might by a more prominent factor allowing for propagation
    of storms and outflow toward the lower deserts.

    Newer thunderstorm development is also ongoing along the Mogollon
    Rim to the northeast of Phoenix, and consolidating outflows may
    begin to advance off the higher toward the metropolitan area during
    the next few hours. The boundary layer across the lower deserts has
    become deeply mixed, with forecast soundings suggesting surface
    temperatures around 100F and dew points in the lower 60s supportive
    of CAPE up to 1000+ J/kg. This probably will be sufficient to
    support continuing and perhaps intensifying thunderstorm development
    along the advancing outflow, which could also strengthen and be
    accompanied by increasing strong surface gusts and blowing dust by
    01-03Z.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rl7C_CNNp3YyeMX6X3d3sk1aN6lvBRxuXf4W2p1EchqWlAZcEmgRoYmjZS6JOVXZTh9lvEe4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 34271295 34061247 34071204 34011162 33541100 33011171
    32951248 33181310 33901353 34401333 34271295=20



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