• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1144

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 3 20:34:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 032034
    SPC MCD 032034=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1144
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0334 PM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021

    Areas affected...south-central North Dakota into north-central South

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032034Z - 032230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is expected over the next
    few hours, and localized strong wind gusts may occur.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows hot temperatures and a low-level
    lapse rate plume nosing across northwest SD and southwest ND. A
    large CU field with isolated small cells has formed in this region,
    where weak convergence also exists near the surface trough.

    Shear will remain weak over the region but continued heating will
    likely support an increase in storm coverage which will spread
    east/southeast toward central parts of the Dakotas, where better
    low-level moisture exists. Most CAMs suggest cells will remain
    small, but possible congealing outflows could eventually result in
    small areas of wind potential.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u5_CEXFVo-NjdLkzn4p9FqEXaYFsOWzRBWVzCZMYB927tCjYaSnoh2vUiRq_XgF95NyklNNx$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 45910294 46250221 46640162 46920102 46950028 46709990
    46109979 45250031 44860085 44750184 44810273 45290290

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