• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1143

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 3 19:54:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 031954
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031953=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-032130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1143
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0253 PM CDT Sat Jul 03 2021

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 031953Z - 032130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to
    develop across the High Plains this afternoon/evening. A few storms
    may produce damaging wind gusts or severe hail. Convective trends
    will be monitored for a possible weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, afternoon visible satellite imagery
    showed deepening cumulus/thunderstorms developing across the High
    Plains of Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming beneath a weak upper level
    trough. SPC mesoanalysis indicates that remaining inhibition will
    likely dissipate within the next hour or two, as convective
    temperatures are breached. Regional observations show temperatures
    well into the 80s to near 90 F, with surface dewpoints ranging from
    the mid 50s to low 60s F. The warming surface temperatures, weak
    upslope flow, and mid-level lapse rates between 7.5 and 8.5 C/km are
    supporting moderate MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg.=20

    Mid-level flow remains quite weak owing to the diffuse upper air
    pattern. As a result, vertical shear is lacking, with regional VWPs
    only sampling 20-25 kts of effective shear. This should limit storms
    to a multicellular storm mode through this afternoon. Given the
    degree of buoyancy and steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, a
    few stronger storm clusters may produce damaging wind gusts or
    severe hail. As storms track south and east this evening, slightly
    greater vertical shear will likely develop with the nocturnal
    low-level jet. A more organized cluster or weak MCS may evolve
    across portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas with a risk
    for damaging wind gusts.=20

    The degree of the severe threat and the need for a watch remains
    uncertain with storms exhibiting limited organization thus far. CAM
    guidance suggests some clustering may develop by 21-22z as outflow
    from additional development coalescence. Should the severe threat
    increase, a weather watch could be needed.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/03/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o_K_yNzAK3nvklUI9QvJZ3-It5QcEdywwnKH-VAmm5ykxrmTwtIR1VpQ0HG_exh6TcdGXIcx$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40760230 39130266 38560304 38430338 38870391 39520405
    40070409 41670401 42610355 42900260 42890185 42600156
    42030162 40760230=20



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