• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1142

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 2 19:13:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021913=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-022045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1142
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0213 PM CDT Fri Jul 02 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of Western New York...and Pennsylvania
    into the Mid Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021913Z - 022045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms may pose a low-end
    severe risk for small hail or damaging wind gusts through this
    afternoon. Limited storm organization suggests a watch is not
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...Beneath the center of a deepening upper low over the
    Allegheny River Valley, several clusters of thunderstorms have
    developed this afternoon across portions of western New York and
    Pennsylvania. Partial clearing under the -17C 500 mb cold pocket has
    allowed weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) to
    develop supporting robust updrafts. Vertical shear remains quite
    weak with regional VWPs sampling on average below 25 kts of
    effective shear. Clusters of multi-cell storms will likely continue
    through this afternoon with the potential for one or two damaging
    wind gusts or small hail given steep mid-level lapse rates.=20

    Farther to the east, residual cloud cover along the cold front
    moving east through the Mid Atlantic will slow surface heating and
    limit diurnal destabilization. While better surface moisture exists
    here along the coast, the eastward displacement from the plume of
    steeper mid-level lapse rates should result in less available
    buoyancy. This should be compensated somewhat by stronger effective
    shear around 30 kts, though storm coverage should be lower. Isolated
    damaging wind gusts will be possible with storms that develop before
    moving completely offshore this evening.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/02/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tLQVZNOyQM2oUJnxCj5IrDiuaXF90Jd3hElcEb55JdbOI2Jlo8ea4VtMKOsT1xxkLohD244f$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 42987629 42607524 41647407 40377389 39887428 39287484
    39327549 40657782 41637895 42427932 43137863 43337804
    42987629=20



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