• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1140

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 1 18:36:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 011836
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011836=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-012000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1140
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0136 PM CDT Thu Jul 01 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern VA into MD...DC...DE...far
    southeastern PA...and southern NJ

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331...

    Valid 011836Z - 012000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest threat for scattered damaging wind gusts in
    the short term should exist from parts of northern Virginia to the
    Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to congeal into clusters across
    northern VA and MD, with a leading supercell approaching the
    Chesapeake Bay. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt will continue to
    support storm organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and
    leading supercells possible. Even though lapse rates aloft remain
    modest, hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter has been reported with
    the leading supercell in MD. Occasional severe hail may remain
    possible in the short term with any storm that can remain at least semi-discrete. Otherwise, scattered damaging wind gusts will likely
    be the primary severe threat as storms continue spreading eastward
    this afternoon. The greatest threat for damaging wind gusts should
    exist across parts of northern VA into central/eastern MD and DE
    where robust heating is supporting MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and
    steep low-level lapse rates. At least an isolated damaging wind
    threat may also exist with a small cluster of storms moving eastward
    across far southeastern PA into southern NJ, but instability is
    comparatively weaker with northward extent across this region owing
    to earlier precipitation/storms.

    ..Gleason.. 07/01/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qhUlTdciZwwbf-Jyx7QfH73iFsXJXugP3_adqsLyUTfBAKl0fzpQOjd9ergLPFRH4daFZo34$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 37997770 38577786 39317722 39727608 40317553 40437531
    40337461 39857451 38867546 37907633 37887704 37997770=20



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