• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1138

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 22:59:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302259
    SPC MCD 302258=20 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-010030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1138
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0558 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...central Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania into
    southern New England

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329...330...

    Valid 302258Z - 010030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329, 330

    SUMMARY...Locally severe gusts remain possible over the next couple
    hours, but a weakening trend is expected especially after 00Z. As
    such, additional watches appear unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Objective analysis shows a corridor of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE
    remains ahead of a composite cold front/outflow boundary. This front
    is oriented roughly parallel to the midlevel winds especially across
    northeast PA into southern NY and CT, and this is allowing outflow
    to undercut ongoing convection. A bit more cross-boundary flow
    exists farther south into MD and northern VA, as well as over
    eastern MA, and this may aid storm longevity in these areas.

    As the boundary layer slowly cools, a weakening trend is
    anticipated, and storms may weaken substantially between 00-01Z.
    Until then, ample PWAT and a warm boundary layer may support locally
    strong to severe gusts. Small hail may also occur over the next hour
    or so with the stronger cells.

    ..Jewell.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qSEKQRz89Q2IsJtTEFzOeh_ln02jC2GN75perFl9Osceav4ngm2eREj9AjJ3CYotXsQrQYM1$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41187505 41587412 41937266 42377089 42077053 41737056
    41477096 41307172 41197243 41227289 40987352 40817387
    40677449 40717486 40327559 39767608 39337690 39017711
    38957752 39057776 39467747 39967718 40437648 41187505=20

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