The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329, 330
SUMMARY...Locally severe gusts remain possible over the next couple
hours, but a weakening trend is expected especially after 00Z. As
such, additional watches appear unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Objective analysis shows a corridor of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE
remains ahead of a composite cold front/outflow boundary. This front
is oriented roughly parallel to the midlevel winds especially across
northeast PA into southern NY and CT, and this is allowing outflow
to undercut ongoing convection. A bit more cross-boundary flow
exists farther south into MD and northern VA, as well as over
eastern MA, and this may aid storm longevity in these areas.
As the boundary layer slowly cools, a weakening trend is
anticipated, and storms may weaken substantially between 00-01Z.
Until then, ample PWAT and a warm boundary layer may support locally
strong to severe gusts. Small hail may also occur over the next hour
or so with the stronger cells.
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