• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1137

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 20:48:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302048
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302048=20
    MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1137
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0348 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern PA into
    central/southern NY...MA...and northern CT

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326...329...

    Valid 302048Z - 302215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326, 329
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated
    severe hail should focus across parts of central/southern New York
    into Massachusetts and vicinity over the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Two loosely organized clusters of storms are present
    this afternoon, one over far northeastern PA into central NY, and
    the other over western into central MA. Strong boundary-layer
    heating has occurred ahead of these storms, and rather steep
    low-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km have developed downstream.
    This region remains on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level
    westerly flow. Still, recent VWPs from KBGM and KENX show modestly strengthening westerly winds with height through mid levels, and
    around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear remain present. Multicell
    clusters will likely continue to pose a threat for scattered
    damaging wind gusts. Some marginally severe hail may also occur,
    particularly with any embedded supercell within the cluster in
    western/central MA. It appears the greatest overall severe threat
    may focus across MA in the short term, where the best overlap of
    steep low-level lapse rates, moderate instability, and sufficient
    deep-layer shear overlap.

    ..Gleason.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u8eKO8yE85MpviN-MwQxTXUAl5YSVZ_w0WoQvaf9_j-h7aZdmTMzTywZ7Uh4DqN6mfii489P$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41737614 42327567 42717444 42717327 42687188 42687087
    42197085 42027180 41857346 41387581 41737614=20



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