• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1136

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 20:41:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 302041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302041=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-302245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1136
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Pennsylvania and the West Virginia...Maryland...Virginia border

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...

    Valid 302041Z - 302245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind threat will continue into the
    early evening hours across parts of WW 328, as well as across southern/southeast Pennsylvania and the broader northeast WV,
    northern VA, and western MD region. A downstream watch will be
    issued to address this potential.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar and IR imagery shows convection
    gradually decreasing across southwest PA as a cold pool becomes
    established (as noted in recent surface observations). Convective
    development across PA has largely become confined to outflow
    boundaries on the periphery of this air mass where the thermodynamic
    conditions remain favorable for a supporting strong to severe
    storms. The severe threat will be greatest on the southern and
    eastern edges of the cold pool where temperatures in the mid/upper
    90s are maintaining steep low-level lapse rates that will support
    damaging winds with any stronger downbursts.=20

    Storms developing off the terrain near the WV/MD/VA border should
    move into southern to southeastern PA over the next few hours and
    may produce a few instances of damaging winds. The extent of the
    threat may largely be determined by convective coverage, which
    appears localized at this point. However, one or two organized
    clusters could evolve in this environment and pose a more
    substantial threat. Despite the conditional nature of the threat, a
    watch will be issued to address this potential.

    ..Moore.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rWyIKRdq4aaqLk8kcXULRPOwlpdSh_dDUoB2bcCuv5A0zWZHq7AH5wD_4os-aPRit_Tciqb7$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39728018 40127916 40657800 41117714 41127623 40777573
    40377554 39897601 39437653 39087716 39097788 39077864
    39187924 39337990 39728018=20



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