• Pacific-EN: TD Enrique 22

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 30 16:35:00 2021
    WTPZ35 KNHC 301438
    TCPEP5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Enrique Advisory Number 22
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
    900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    ...ENRIQUE WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION...


    SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...24.6N 110.0W
    ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Enrique
    was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.0 West. The
    depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
    a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the
    forecast track, the center of Enrique will move over Baja California
    Sur tonight.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
    day or so, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate on Thursday.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------

    RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
    to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern
    portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may trigger flash
    flooding and mudslides.

    SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the
    western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during
    the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
    life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 30 16:35:00 2021
    WTPZ45 KNHC 301439
    TCDEP5

    Tropical Depression Enrique Discussion Number 22
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
    900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    After a brief burst of convection near its center overnight, the
    satellite presentation of Enrique has degraded this morning.
    Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed near the
    estimated center position, and the only active convection at this
    time is occurring over the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight satellite-derived wind data supported winds of 25 to 30 kt in the
    northeast quadrant of the cyclone, and satellite trends suggest
    Enrique has weakened since then. Additionally, TAFB gave the system
    a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification. Therefore, the initial
    intensity is lowered to 30 kt this morning, which downgrades Enrique
    to a tropical depression.

    Enrique is currently moving northwestward, although it is expected
    to turn slightly more west-northwestward later today between a weak
    ridge to its northeast and a low- to mid-level low pressure system
    well offshore. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
    official NHC forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus.
    Increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air in the
    surrounding environment, as well as increasing land interaction,
    should support continued weakening during the next day or so. As
    expected, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF do not
    indicate much potential for additional convective development before
    the system moves inland tonight. Therefore, Enrique is forecast to
    become a remnant low over Baja California Sur by Thursday and
    dissipate shortly thereafter.


    Key Messages:

    1. Heavy rains associated with Enrique are possible across southern
    portions of Baja California Sur. This will pose a threat of flash
    flooding and mudslides.

    2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western
    coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the
    next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
    surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
    local weather office.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 30/1500Z 24.6N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
    12H 01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    24H 01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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