• Pacific-NW: I95W Formatio

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Wed Jun 30 16:34:00 2021
    WTPN22 PGTW 300100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7N 139.6E TO 22.0N 134.2E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 19.6N 139.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 19.8N 140.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 139.3E, APPROXIMATELY
    752NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY AND A 291919Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
    CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
    SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, A TIMELY 292247Z ASCAT-A
    IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF 20KT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-
    CIRCLE OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS IN A
    FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE WIND
    SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
    SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
    95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE TO THE EAST AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES BEFORE TURNING TO A
    MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    010100Z.//
    NNNN
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