• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1134

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 19:29:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301929
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301929=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-302130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1134
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Central to western Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...

    Valid 301929Z - 302130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind continues for southwest to
    central Pennsylvania as thunderstorm coverage gradually increases.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a gradual increase in
    thunderstorm coverage across far eastern OH and central PA along a
    diffuse surface trough. Most storms in this region have shown a
    tendency for outrunning outflows and/or becoming driven by cold-pool propagation, but a few have shown sufficient
    organization/intensification for damaging winds. Temperatures
    warming into the low 90s are sustaining 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over
    the region as well as 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates. These
    thermodynamics combined with 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear
    will maintain a conditionally favorable damaging wind environment
    that may be realized by any stronger downburst or clusters that can
    develop organized outflows oriented orthogonal to the westerly mean
    flow. The damaging wind threat will likely be highest from southwest
    to central PA for the next 1-2 hours where more robust convection is
    noted in IR imagery and echo top data. The severe risk should
    gradually shift to the east/northeast of ongoing convection through
    late afternoon.

    ..Moore.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pw2Fd0fxPzqrcY5wU0nMM9-jVoLXfa-uSm0O_964WxeA0Q_Yqs32hYIKwTQfGlUaCSIGmtax$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 40428044 40697981 41187876 41537783 41707720 41367660
    40907656 40557694 40257762 39827832 39647922 39647992
    39648039 39768058 40078050 40428044=20



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