• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1133

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 18:17:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301817
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301816=20
    MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-302015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1133
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern PA...far northern
    NJ...southern NY...CT...RI...and MA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 301816Z - 302015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds
    should continue to move eastward this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and
    intensity across parts of central PA into central/eastern NY
    along/east of a weak surface trough and zone of differential
    heating. Some of these storms have a history of producing both
    marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts across central NY.
    Recent surface observations and area VWPs show low-level winds are
    generally veered to west-southwesterly, which is limiting low-level convergence. Still, current expectations are for the ongoing
    convection to gradually spread eastward across parts of northeastern
    PA into far northern NJ, southern NY, and CT/RI/MA through the
    remainder of the afternoon. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and
    1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should be sufficient for an organized
    severe threat. The primary risk should be scattered severe/damaging
    wind gusts as storms will probably tend to form into small bowing
    clusters with eastward extent. But, occasional marginally severe
    hail may also occur with any convection that can remain
    semi-discrete. A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
    needed.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pHiGQUdJI7qrMPDi5Et6ucfOGrW7DcIbHqiwPsp_9KWfrXXAwtxFyacCrZQyQ8gebKZAaDMF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41037604 41657616 41857511 42187445 42697412 42697325
    42637125 42827101 42847078 42697056 42517072 42337079
    42177063 42027069 41797103 41617147 41347351 40727569
    41037604=20



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