• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1132

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 18:13:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301813
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301813=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-302015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1132
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0113 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Wisconsin and parts of Michigan's
    Upper-Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301813Z - 302015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may gradually intensify through the
    afternoon hours and pose a damaging wind/hail risk. However, this
    threat will remain spatially confined to northeast Wisconsin and the south-central Upper-Peninsula of Michigan. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Midday water-vapor imagery shows a mid/upper-level
    trough moving southward out of southern Canada into the western
    Great Lakes region. Lift ahead of this wave is slowly overspreading
    northern WI and the U.P. of MI where temperatures are slowly warming
    into the upper 70s and low 80s amid dewpoints in the 60s. Warming
    surface temperatures and gradual cooling aloft is supporting modest
    instability (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE in recent mesoanalysis
    estimates), but further warming should lead to a slow increase in
    instability through late afternoon. 30-40 knot flow above 6 km
    (sampled by the KMQT VWP) associated with the approaching wave is
    providing sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization.=20

    Recent surface observations hint at a subtle boundary/surface trough
    moving southward across the U.P. and northern WI, which may be the
    impetus for the ongoing early convection south of Marquette, MI.
    Deep-layer flow oriented along the subtle initiating boundary will
    favor further upscale growth for these initial storms, which may
    pose a damaging wind threat in the near-term. Additional convection
    developing later this afternoon along the boundary and/or along any
    lake breezes may initially be discrete and pose a hail threat before
    merging into clusters. Overall, this threat is expected to remain
    fairly confined to northeast WI and the south-central U.P., so a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ubh-VtOI9QcYyLU7ar5UsmCuGxr3JkyQJA2Urku4_W_aTRZm2ZuHcEtpy8YOdULtd39HxeQC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

    LAT...LON 44378916 44558960 44798981 45138970 45658907 46078852
    46378725 46168659 45888638 45548651 44968701 44418752
    44218787 44288844 44378916=20



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