The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326, 327
SUMMARY...The greatest short-term threat for damaging wind gusts and
severe hail should focus across parts of eastern New York into
Vermont, New Hampshire, and southern Maine.
DISCUSSION...As of 1750Z, multiple supercells and short line
segments have developed across parts of central/eastern NY into VT.
Surface temperatures have mostly warmed into the upper 80s and low
90s, with dewpoints holding in the mid 60s to low 70s. Around
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE has already developed across this region.
Enhanced westerly low to mid-level flow (30-40 kt at 700 mb and
45-50 kt at 500 mb) will remain over the Northeast this afternoon,
and 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will be favorable for organized
severe storms. Current expectations are for ongoing storms to
continue posing a threat for both scattered damaging winds and
isolated severe hail. There appears to be some potential for storms
to gradually congeal into one or more small bowing clusters, with a
potentially greater damaging wind threat into parts of VT/NH and
southern ME later this afternoon.
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