• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1131

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 17:52:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301752
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301752=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-301915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1131
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1252 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY into VT...NH...and southern
    ME

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326...327...

    Valid 301752Z - 301915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 326, 327
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest short-term threat for damaging wind gusts and
    severe hail should focus across parts of eastern New York into
    Vermont, New Hampshire, and southern Maine.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1750Z, multiple supercells and short line
    segments have developed across parts of central/eastern NY into VT.
    Surface temperatures have mostly warmed into the upper 80s and low
    90s, with dewpoints holding in the mid 60s to low 70s. Around
    1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE has already developed across this region.
    Enhanced westerly low to mid-level flow (30-40 kt at 700 mb and
    45-50 kt at 500 mb) will remain over the Northeast this afternoon,
    and 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will be favorable for organized
    severe storms. Current expectations are for ongoing storms to
    continue posing a threat for both scattered damaging winds and
    isolated severe hail. There appears to be some potential for storms
    to gradually congeal into one or more small bowing clusters, with a
    potentially greater damaging wind threat into parts of VT/NH and
    southern ME later this afternoon.

    ..Gleason.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pQhh1LbOt3ZLNZ7Z3yt0TJqRzfrhGfQTrkJ_2DhmYhFi-36pLLUGNfcAAiYmcpFT1gCUBi2I$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 43087498 43817333 44527269 44747148 44697013 43837011
    43337110 42787275 42817475 43087498=20



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