• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1130

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 17:22:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301722
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301722=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-301915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1130
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Missouri into the lower Ohio River Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301722Z - 301915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Diurnal thunderstorms are developing in an environment
    conducive for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a brief hail
    threat. This threat will remain isolated in nature, and a watch is
    not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible imagery and composite reflectivity
    data show deepening cumulus and weak convection developing across
    the higher terrain of the MO Ozarks. This activity is being driven
    by diurnal heating south of a weak frontal zone where mostly clear
    skies are allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 80s.
    Satellite imagery suggests most of this activity is not yet fully
    mature, but continued warming through the afternoon will aid in
    further destabilization and gradual intensification as convection
    drifts east/southeast towards the lower OH river valley. Moderate
    instability (near 2000 J/kg MLCAPE expected by mid-afternoon)
    combined with steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few
    downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. A brief hail threat may
    evolve with the initial development of any stronger updraft, but
    weak mid/upper-level flow will limit updraft longevity and the
    attendant hail threat. While storm coverage may increase through the
    afternoon as low-level parcels hit their convective temperatures,
    strong to severe storms should remain somewhat sporadic and mitigate
    the need for a watch.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v_8cdPNfQETxsNiyBWvaXrz-aa2JNn5AZD-R7OzGocfA5fQYj8Jf7oW1lumNgZZRtWGRlol9$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37619269 37919222 38188994 38338950 38538901 38688849
    38508794 38148750 37688732 37228775 36908817 36798874
    36658956 36589186 36649272 36899297 37619269=20



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