• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1129

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 15:31:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301531
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301530=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-301730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1129
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1030 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...northern WV...and
    western/central PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 301530Z - 301730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing mainly scattered strong to
    damaging winds should develop this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough
    over Ontario, Quebec, and the Great Lakes will mostly remain to the
    north of PA. Even so, modest enhancement to the mid-level
    southwesterlies should overlie parts of the upper OH Valley into western/central PA this afternoon. Around 25-35 kt of effective bulk
    shear is forecast to be present across the warm sector, which should
    support some storm organization. Multicell clusters should be the
    dominant storm mode given the marginally sufficient deep-layer
    shear. Continued diurnal heating of the rather moist low-level
    airmass ahead of morning storms in western/central OH will likely
    foster 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon from eastern OH
    into northern WV and much of western/central PA. Locally stronger
    instability may develop across parts of this region. Steepening
    low-level lapse rates should allow for efficient downdraft
    accelerations, and scattered damaging wind gusts will likely be the
    primary severe threat as storms spread eastward through the
    afternoon and early evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely
    be needed in the next couple of hours as storms gradually increase
    in coverage and intensity.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rdg8KMc4HQVz5mY241-SgRIunK3kvnha7hil9FD9M58HkyFzrUIuMc-CGaRu2S1eKo0KP5wn$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

    LAT...LON 39538209 39948213 40508212 40988124 41937958 41947831
    41927701 41437691 40877724 40227825 39847929 39428045
    39318129 39538209=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 16:36:42 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1625071008-59769-463
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 301531
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301530=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-301730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1129
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1030 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...northern WV...and
    western/central PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 301530Z - 301730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of producing mainly scattered strong to
    damaging winds should develop this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough
    over Ontario, Quebec, and the Great Lakes will mostly remain to the
    north of PA. Even so, modest enhancement to the mid-level
    southwesterlies should overlie parts of the upper OH Valley into western/central PA this afternoon. Around 25-35 kt of effective bulk
    shear is forecast to be present across the warm sector, which should
    support some storm organization. Multicell clusters should be the
    dominant storm mode given the marginally sufficient deep-layer
    shear. Continued diurnal heating of the rather moist low-level
    airmass ahead of morning storms in western/central OH will likely
    foster 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon from eastern OH
    into northern WV and much of western/central PA. Locally stronger
    instability may develop across parts of this region. Steepening
    low-level lapse rates should allow for efficient downdraft
    accelerations, and scattered damaging wind gusts will likely be the
    primary severe threat as storms spread eastward through the
    afternoon and early evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely
    be needed in the next couple of hours as storms gradually increase
    in coverage and intensity.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sCEjfjGYSiOYci7VeknZbGgQssdC1k_S5ezoCQB7r5oSRCvuYSFY1yLF3qaj0ipPwEAUBJ4e$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

    LAT...LON 39538209 39948213 40508212 40988124 41937958 41947831
    41927701 41437691 40877724 40227825 39847929 39428045
    39318129 39538209=20



    ------------=_1625071008-59769-463
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1625071008-59769-463--

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