• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1128

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 15:05:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 301505
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301504=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-301700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1004 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far northern PA into much of NY...far
    western MA...VT...NH...and southern/central ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 301504Z - 301700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for scattered severe/damaging wind gusts and
    isolated marginally severe hail will increase late this morning into
    the afternoon. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...40-50 kt of mid-level west-southwesterly flow
    associated with an upper trough centered over Ontario/Quebec and the
    Great Lakes will remain over much of the Northeast today. With the
    lack of an appreciable surface front, low-level convergence should
    remain fairly weak across this region. Still, a zone of differential
    heating between morning clouds/precipitation and partly to mostly
    clear conditions to the south, as well as some convergence off of
    Lakes Erie/Ontario, will probably serve as foci for storm
    development. As surface temperatures generally warm into the upper
    80s and low 90s over the next couple of hours, convective
    temperatures will likely be reached as 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
    develops.

    Around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should prove favorable for a
    mix of small clusters/multicells and supercells as storms form and
    then move eastward across NY and New England. Steep low-level lapse
    rates and strengthening flow with height through low/mid levels
    suggest that scattered damaging wind gusts will likely be the main
    severe threat. With some supercell potential given the mostly
    long/straight hodographs expected, isolated marginally severe hail
    may also occur. But, modest mid-level lapse rates will probably
    limit a greater hail threat. Current expectations are for robust
    storm development to occur by 16-17Z (Noon - 1 PM EDT), and multiple
    Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be issued to address this
    increasing severe threat.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!psXLsgElbiXoCIVvKBwGn0g9LpINGjrhzz1FpM3liw6QAX7ntvoi7LAw2thGRS9US6cziiWc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43007067 42747134 42777303 42237338 42017395 41787480
    42017693 42047831 42387844 42947751 43557587 44047524
    44457389 44817215 45157102 45586995 45626747 45226712
    44776688 44056854 43766954 43457022 43007067=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 30 16:36:46 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1625071013-59769-465
    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 301505
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301504=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-301700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1004 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far northern PA into much of NY...far
    western MA...VT...NH...and southern/central ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 301504Z - 301700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for scattered severe/damaging wind gusts and
    isolated marginally severe hail will increase late this morning into
    the afternoon. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely
    be needed.

    DISCUSSION...40-50 kt of mid-level west-southwesterly flow
    associated with an upper trough centered over Ontario/Quebec and the
    Great Lakes will remain over much of the Northeast today. With the
    lack of an appreciable surface front, low-level convergence should
    remain fairly weak across this region. Still, a zone of differential
    heating between morning clouds/precipitation and partly to mostly
    clear conditions to the south, as well as some convergence off of
    Lakes Erie/Ontario, will probably serve as foci for storm
    development. As surface temperatures generally warm into the upper
    80s and low 90s over the next couple of hours, convective
    temperatures will likely be reached as 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
    develops.

    Around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should prove favorable for a
    mix of small clusters/multicells and supercells as storms form and
    then move eastward across NY and New England. Steep low-level lapse
    rates and strengthening flow with height through low/mid levels
    suggest that scattered damaging wind gusts will likely be the main
    severe threat. With some supercell potential given the mostly
    long/straight hodographs expected, isolated marginally severe hail
    may also occur. But, modest mid-level lapse rates will probably
    limit a greater hail threat. Current expectations are for robust
    storm development to occur by 16-17Z (Noon - 1 PM EDT), and multiple
    Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be issued to address this
    increasing severe threat.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/30/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ql3HKOodLiUgHgKfaQf7b438gSbRHYPgf03E9X2lffvduAQOLwkb11M3A_4qWo3qqczqhGmA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43007067 42747134 42777303 42237338 42017395 41787480
    42017693 42047831 42387844 42947751 43557587 44047524
    44457389 44817215 45157102 45586995 45626747 45226712
    44776688 44056854 43766954 43457022 43007067=20



    ------------=_1625071013-59769-465
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    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

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    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1625071013-59769-465--

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