• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1127

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 29 23:17:54 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292317
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292317=20
    MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-300045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1127
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0617 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern New York into portions of New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292317Z - 300045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms will pose a risk for a few
    damaging wind gusts into this evening. Weak shear and limited storm organization suggests the severe threat will remain marginal.

    DISCUSSION...2300z observations showed isolated thunderstorms
    ongoing along and south of a diffuse frontal zone from eastern New
    York through portions of New England. In the past half hour, a few
    of these storms have produced occasional tree damage suggesting a
    low-end severe threat may continue for a few more hours. From SPC
    mesoanalysis, moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is in
    place, with weak vertical shear less than 25 kts. The
    instability/shear overlap will favor a multicellular storm mode with
    the potential for a few marginally severe gusts through this evening
    as storms continue east. As sunset approaches and nocturnal
    inhibition begins to increase, storm coverage and the resulting
    severe threat should dwindle. Given convective trends and coverage,
    a weather watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s27P3RdG-PgZXkVEwVFycpkSLNaweH703NXowz93w6nizfeQo2LF2Xv_PRPVUxl1eVdTq08V$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 43367445 43657328 43577212 42487068 41767119 41447249
    42117458 43007463 43367445=20



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