• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1126

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 29 21:52:16 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 292152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292151=20
    UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-292315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1126
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern California into the Southern Great Basin
    and portions of the Southwest

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292151Z - 292315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based storms across portions of Nevada, Utah,
    Arizona, and eastern California may pose a risk for strong downdraft
    winds or a dry microburst this afternoon and evening. Coverage of
    severe storms should remain low enough that a weather watch is not
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...One the fringes of a powerful mid-level anticyclone
    centered over the Pacific Northwest, weak forcing for ascent has
    overspread monsoonal moisture across portions of the Great Basin and
    Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms have been observed to develop and
    strengthen over the last half hour. These storms are ongoing in an
    environment characterized by steep mid and low-level lapse rates
    around 8-9 C/km. With a relatively high PWAT airmass (0.75-1.1
    inches) in place, between 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE has developed.
    This will continue to support robust updraft development through the
    rest of the diurnal cycle. Overall vertical shear remains weak, with
    a local maximum between 20 and 25 kts across southeastern Nevada and
    western Utah. The lack of greater shear should favor a multicellular
    storm mode, with the potential for isolated severe gusts as updrafts
    collapse through this evening. Given limited storm organization and
    expected severe coverage, a watch is not expected.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u8kNGpKS3bvvxA4yCUzcbPPJWtPPeNnI4AZEsrx_QJXhSOQmz52YgzhVpRhiZc0B1q8pzBsj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...HNX...STO...

    LAT...LON 35421450 36021833 38042010 39101943 39291701 38961536
    38661419 38121349 37471322 36861328 36441336 35421450=20



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