• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1125

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 29 18:34:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291834
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291833=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-292030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1125
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0133 PM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Ohio...Northwest Pennsylvania...and far
    southwest New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291833Z - 292030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Lake Erie and Lake
    Ontario lake breezes and across central Ohio may produce occasional
    strong to damaging downburst winds. This threat will be limited in
    nature, and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually developed along the lake
    breeze on the southern shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario and
    across central OH over the past 1-2 hours. The mean flow over the
    region is aligned well with the lake breeze boundaries, making storm propagation off the boundaries difficult and mitigating storm
    coverage for the time being. This has allowed temperatures across east/northeast OH and into northwest PA/southwest NY to warm into
    the upper 80s and low 90s with nearly 20 degree dewpoint depressions
    noted - indicative of a potentially well-mixed boundary layer with
    steep low-level lapse rates. Recent mesoanalysis estimates and RAP
    forecast soundings support this idea with around 8 C/km lapse rates
    noted in the lowest 1-2 km. Although deep-layer shear over the
    region is modest, 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE combined with these
    low-level profiles may support a few downbursts with strong winds.
    Storms initially confined to the boundaries and across central OH
    will likely propagate to the east/southeast due to a combination of
    mean flow and cold pool propagation, though confidence in the
    southeastern extent of convection area is uncertain, and a watch is
    not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!solqYb_1k15OMRetVCQRPVPYSrahtIqS4c_iRLDoZguGaX1s-5RiJdthAwQ5QTss_qP9sdbP$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 41348269 41458194 41578161 41848106 42197998 42527928
    42757880 43027868 43147810 43237742 43297662 43397610
    43167555 42747550 42037628 41787744 41317804 41027895
    40658077 40278241 40158352 40438369 40828353 41198301
    41348269=20



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