• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1124

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 29 16:55:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291655
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291654=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1124
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1154 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021

    Areas affected...Illinois...northwest Indiana...southern
    Michigan...and far northwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291654Z - 291900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic wind damage will be possible as storms develop
    during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Severe coverage
    should be limited, so a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows a couple of developing
    thunderstorms and agitated cumulus along two outflow boundaries
    south/southeast of the Grand Rapids, MI area and across central to
    northeast IL. Ahead of these boundaries, a growing cumulus field has
    developed across eastern IL into IN and southern MI, indicative of
    diurnal destabilization. Further destabilization is expected through
    the afternoon as temperatures continue to rise in to the upper 80s
    low 90s amid dewpoints in the low 70s. Moderate instability (near
    2000 J/kg MLCAPE) will be in place along/ahead of these boundaries
    by early afternoon, and deep-layer shear over the region should
    remain sufficient for some organized convection. Regional VWP
    observations sampled 20 (35) knots of 0-3 km (0-6 km) shear, which
    will likely favor thunderstorm clusters along the boundaries through
    the early/mid afternoon. Sporadic wind damage will be possible,
    especially if cold pools can align orthogonal to the mean
    southwesterly flow/low-level shear vectors. Severe storms will
    likely be limited in coverage owing to the limited spatial overlap
    of favorable buoyancy and stronger winds aloft, so a watch is not
    likely.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/29/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vOuT9ZZcSuWILXnNmm0ngHQq1HIzNxzFMdHghXAV627FVOfkU4IJmSTB3YvHfSuftznWvSQr$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 40188896 41138791 41868687 42398616 42628525 43328363
    43188264 42928229 42378261 41808308 41418347 40948414
    40458505 40018603 39628697 39508756 39788898 40188896=20



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