• STRMDISC: TS Danny D2

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon Jun 28 19:44:00 2021
    672
    WTNT44 KNHC 282042
    TCDAT4

    Tropical Storm Danny Discussion Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021
    500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021

    Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what
    is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt
    winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt
    surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston
    radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which
    also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft
    dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on
    these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt.

    The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to
    maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with
    landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely
    occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone
    should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and
    eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected
    over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early
    Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of
    the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track
    models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX.

    No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes
    landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall,
    with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning.
    The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS
    statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity
    consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

    Key Messages:

    1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina
    and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast
    Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the
    southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts.

    2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
    the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a
    Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

    3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affect
    portions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells
    could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 28/2100Z 32.3N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
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