• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1123

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 28 20:41:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 282041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282040=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-282315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1123
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of VT...NH...and ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 282040Z - 282315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly strong/gusty winds may exist
    this afternoon through the early evening. Watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Although low-level convergence remains weak, convection
    may continue to increase in coverage this afternoon across parts of
    the Northeast along/south of a weak front. 45-60 kt of mid-level
    westerly flow is present over portions of southern Quebec and
    northern ME, generally to the north of the surface front. Modestly
    enhanced mid-level westerly flow around 30-40 kt is present farther
    south over the warm sector across VT, NH, and central/southern ME.
    Similar values of effective bulk shear should prove favorable for a
    mix of multicells and marginal supercell structures. Amid breaks in
    cloud cover, robust heating has occurred across this region, with
    surface temperatures generally warming into the upper 80s to lower
    90s. Mid-level lapse rates remain generally poor, but around
    1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed along/south of the front. As
    low-level lapse rates continue to steepen, storms moving eastward
    may pose a threat for occasional strong/gusty winds capable of
    producing mainly tree damage through the early evening. Regardless,
    this severe threat is expected to remain too isolated/marginal to
    justify watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pYnxFwcTp0R0WQCWnJTxR1wyN2I6WcZkqngEX7azwf9PPFxBR11VQ0UzSchknZnMdvreDO6r$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

    LAT...LON 43917332 44477316 45047266 45057160 45307146 45437088
    45567034 45706840 45616734 45356736 45246718 45146674
    44886684 44596719 44396757 44076837 43716986 43647091
    43687272 43917332=20



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