• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1122

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 28 18:22:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281822
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281821=20
    SCZ000-282015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1122
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0121 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

    Areas affected...Coastal South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281821Z - 282015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible this afternoon
    across the South Carolina coastal region as Tropical Depression Four
    moves onshore. A watch is not likely due to low confidence in a more
    robust tornado threat.

    DISCUSSION...A few weak thunderstorms associated with the outer
    bands of Tropical Depression Four have been moving across coastal
    areas of SC over the past hour with only transient signs of
    intensification. This is likely due to weak low and mid-level lapse
    rates as sampled by the 12Z CHS sounding. However, temperatures are
    warming into the low to mid 80s where cloud cover is minimal, which
    may locally augment instability through the afternoon and lead to
    some storm intensification. GOES visible and IR imagery show a
    couple of additional convective towers developing inland as well as
    offshore, suggesting that lift and instability remain adequate for
    new development at least for the near term. Recent hi-res guidance
    supports this idea, suggesting that another round of storms is
    possible along the coast by mid afternoon, though confidence in this
    scenario is low. The KCLX VWP sampled veering winds in the lowest
    1-2 km, which is supporting around 100 m2/s2 ESRH along the coast.
    The combination of sufficient instability and low-level shear will
    support a low-end tornado threat through the afternoon. This threat
    will likely be conditional on sustained mature convection, but the
    transient nature of storms thus far and limited potential for
    widespread convection point to low confidence in a robust tornado
    threat. Trends will be monitored, but a watch is unlikely.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rU_vRKjHU2zoCsn85xqHg2xzW8KgG0btCtaMgyQ4WwCNDXpXSHRLHMS4Ko2NAZPFWQYW_vpS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 32178052 32448089 33028060 33438017 33777953 33887887
    33717858 33077890 32677937 32407979 32298008 32178052=20



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