• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1121

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 28 17:09:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 281709
    SPC MCD 281708=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1121
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 28 2021

    Areas affected...Central Illinois...northern Indian...and southern

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 281708Z - 281915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
    develop through the early to mid afternoon hours. Storms may be
    capable of sporadic wind damage, but the overall severe threat will
    generally remain low and a watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES IR imagery have shown a gradual intensification in convection across central/southern IL and eastern
    MO over the past hour. This is mostly attributable to diurnal
    destabilization as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s amid
    the moist, conditionally unstable thermodynamic profiles observed
    across the Midwest in morning soundings. Mesoanalysis estimates
    suggest MLCAPE values near 1000-1500 J/kg are already in place, and
    further destabilization is likely through the mid afternoon via
    continued daytime heating. The mid/upper-level jet is largely
    displaced to the north of the warmer, more unstable air mass, but a
    narrow overlap of 30-35 knots of effective bulk shear exists within
    the IL to MI corridor that may support some storm organization.
    Initially discrete cells developing along a weak frontal zone will
    likely evolve into clusters through the afternoon and may be capable
    of sporadic wind damage. Overall the severe threat is expected to be
    limited given marginal lapse rates and the narrow overlap of
    adequate CAPE/shear, and a watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/28/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ulxuRUsJAzymFpbnV8AQJdli_fRYROp9KJuGY2KNzEnNFS0atMHJJeCgIdFSMkHdCCuzirbf$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40409060 40948967 41588756 42028639 42308539 42708443
    42328337 41658357 41238489 40628692 40068856 39048979
    39119052 39459087 39949107 40409060=20

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