• Pacific-EN: Enrique D11

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 27 17:53:00 2021
    WTPZ45 KNHC 272057
    TCDEP5

    Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
    400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

    Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery
    since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature
    has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and
    structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest
    Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity
    remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses
    helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed
    that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area
    of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest
    core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore.

    Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today.
    However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward
    component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07
    kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently
    moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico.
    A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone
    tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This
    northwestward motion should then continue until the system
    dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track
    and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique
    are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through
    tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest
    winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of
    Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the
    coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the
    system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja
    California peninsula.

    Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the
    official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur
    through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin
    moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the
    fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling
    should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a
    gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the
    cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into
    a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the
    pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a
    remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether
    or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the
    southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a
    Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern
    Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally
    become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The
    latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
    one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the
    corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h.


    Key Messages:

    1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
    across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two,
    which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
    mudslides.

    2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern
    coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a
    Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force
    winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern
    Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane
    conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area.

    3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
    southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
    could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
    12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
    24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
    48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
    60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
    96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Latto/Brown
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