• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1120

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 27 18:19:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271818
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271818=20
    NMZ000-TXZ000-272015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1120
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0118 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

    Areas affected...Southern New Mexico and far southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271818Z - 272015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may intensify and pose
    a damaging wind threat through the late afternoon and evening hours.
    The threat should be limited enough to preclude the need for a
    watch.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed
    within the higher terrain of the Gila region of southwest NM over
    the past two hours, and are expected to propagate east/southeastward
    towards southern NM/southwest TX through the late afternoon.
    Additionally, cumulus along the TX/NM border has shown signs of
    gradual deepening, signifying waning inhibition. The combination of
    daytime heating and weak moisture advection has been gradually
    increasing MLCAPE through the late morning/early afternoon with
    roughly 500-1000 J/kg already in place over the region. Although
    flow aloft is modest, a nearly 180 degree wind shift above 2-3 km
    (noted in regional VWPs) is supporting close to 40 knots of
    effective bulk shear, which should aid in convective organization as
    discrete cells and clusters move towards the international border
    and/or develop out of the deepening cumulus field. Additionally,
    low-level lapse rates are steepening amid deeper boundary-layer
    mixing with 7-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates noted in recent mesoanalysis
    estimates. This may allow for strong outflows and an attendant
    damaging wind threat with any organized storm or cluster. However,
    the coverage of any strong to severe storms should remain somewhat
    limited given the marginal instability and narrow spatial overlap
    with favorable wind shear, and will likely preclude the need for a
    watch.

    ..Moore/Hart.. 06/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tDWmjH7Ug395PG9XriW6bSGieVVQlZIU05oMI6v8ZysAiL5jvNyRm1xIt8H6XBGCq7w4ePHj$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 31520810 31960835 32470828 32850768 32830620 32700573
    32360510 32140482 31470468 30980504 30670532 31030587
    31390638 31500764 31520810=20



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