• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1119

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 27 16:36:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 271636
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271636=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-271900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1119
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1136 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of east central Missouri through central
    Illinois and northwestern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 271636Z - 271900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually begin developing
    and intensifying through 1-3 PM CDT. Some may organize into
    clusters which could pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
    gusts later this afternoon. However, it appears unlikely that a
    severe weather watch will be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development, likely aided by
    low-level convergence along a weak frontal zone (associated with
    remnant weak large-scale mid-level troughing across the northern
    Great Plains/Upper Midwest), is evident near/northwest of the
    Greater St. Louis metropolitan area into southeastern portions of
    the Greater Chicago area. Along and south of this front, the
    boundary layer remains characterized by seasonably high moisture
    content (70s+ F surface dew points...including upper 70s F around
    the St. Louis area), and insolation is contributing to CAPE in
    excess of 1000 J/kg. With further heating increasing CAPE up to
    1500-2000 J/kg, and weakening remaining inhibition, scattered
    thunderstorms are expected to develop and intensify through 18-20Z.=20
    It is possible that this could by aided by mid/upper forcing
    associated with a convectively generated or enhance perturbation
    migrating northeastward from southeastern Kansas/Oklahoma.

    Deep-layer mean wind fields and shear along the corridor of
    increasing thunderstorm development are rather modest at or below 30
    kt, and expected to remain so. However, this could be sufficient to
    support some upscale growing clusters of storms, which could pose a
    risk for locally strong downbursts, aided by heavy precipitation
    loading, despite generally weak lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vOh58IU20_QY7SzR81Sko0aVqXitfQezF7jb5DuVtoHitCoDmQjAN2XEBiLghJf9M7HOhZHv$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39009090 39409063 40398925 40858843 41508756 40618685
    38608985 38369084 39009090=20



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