• Pacific-NW: TS Champi R22

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 27 10:00:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 270600
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 2105 CHAMPI (2105)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    TS CHAMPI IS LOCATED AT 31.8N, 142.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
    UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
    WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
    ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12.
    THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST
    IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
    TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
    CLOSE AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
    EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
    EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
    A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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