• Pacific-EN: Enrique D9

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun Jun 27 09:56:00 2021
    WTPZ45 KNHC 270841
    TCDEP5

    Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
    300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021

    The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much
    over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on
    geostationary satellite images. However, Enrique has well-defined
    convective banding features over most of its circulation. Taking a
    blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
    gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. A little more
    strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official
    forecast. In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and
    decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to
    commence. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be
    entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja
    California peninsula, which should also contribute to the
    weakening process. The official intensity forecast is similar to
    the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU Superensemble predictions.

    Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion
    estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt. Steering currents
    are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days. The
    system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to
    northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level
    trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days.
    Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should
    gradually bend to the left under the influence of the
    lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The official track forecast
    is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too
    different from the previous NHC track.


    Key Messages:

    1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
    across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple
    of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding
    and mudslides.

    2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across
    portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the
    core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any
    deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the
    wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion
    of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch
    is in effect for a portion of that area.

    3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
    southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
    could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    12H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
    24H 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
    48H 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
    60H 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
    72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
    96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
    120H 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
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