• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1117

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 27 01:23:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270123
    SPC MCD 270123=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1117
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0823 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    Areas affected...east-central Illinois northeast into Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 322...

    Valid 270123Z - 270230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 322 continues.

    SUMMARY...Overall convective trends indicate a diminishing threat of
    organized severe potential. Brief/localized gusty winds may be
    possible across portions of the region, but the isolated nature of
    the threat should not preclude the expiration of Tornado Watches 321
    and 322 at 10PM EDT and 9 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...A small convective bowing segment is expected to
    continue weakening as it moves across Lower Michigan this evening.
    This is supported by a substantial decrease in lightning activity
    and warming cloud tops as the segment moves into an airmass already
    overturned by earlier convection. Gusty winds may continue to occur
    over the next 1-2 hours as the segment continues to move northeast,
    between Lansing and Ann Arbor, but given the overall downward
    trends, Tornado Watch 322 should be able to expire at 02Z.

    Farther south, a more robust convective bowing segment has developed
    as it exited portions of east-central Illinois and (locally
    extended) Tornado Watch 321 and into west-central Indiana and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325. However, the loss of diurnal heating and
    development of a nocturnal boundary layer should begin to increase
    near-ground stability sufficiently to decrease the likelihood of
    sustained severe-criterion surface winds with time. Before this
    happens, strong, gusty thunderstorm winds will continue to be
    possible for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, convective
    intensity continues to diminish across Tornado Watch 321 and thus
    the watch should be able to expire at 02Z.

    ..Marsh.. 06/27/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vqrW4B7fh3qUdrtR5k24wa124ucfTT9WihcFZLlc-c7zDghXIIamCY9xiBN6lJI5-pRClSRC$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39348914 42988542 44318347 44158208 42418273 40748496
    39608689 39158798 39218874 39348914=20

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