Mesoscale Discussion 1115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021
Areas affected...Southeast NM...northwest TX...southwest OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323...
Valid 262327Z - 270100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323
SUMMARY...Hail and wind threat continue across ww323.
DISCUSSION...Surface front has effectively stalled across the
southern High Plains this evening, trailing from northwestern OK
near END-CSM-HOB in southeast NM. High PW air mass extends along
this corridor with 1.5-2 inch values noted where MLCAPE is in excess
of 2000 J/kg. Although scattered storms will likely evolve along
this corridor through the evening hours, latest data suggests this
boundary may not move appreciably tonight. Until the reservoir of
buoyancy is overturned, the most robust updrafts could produce hail,
in addition to gusty winds. There appears to be a possible prolonged
convective scenario developing across the southern Plains. Very
heavy rain can also be expected.
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