• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1114

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 26 23:09:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 262309
    SPC MCD 262308=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1114
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    Areas affected...east-central Illinois...northwest Indiana...and
    much of Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 321...322...

    Valid 262308Z - 270015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 321, 322 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to occur across Illinois northeast
    into Lower Michigan. The overall environment will continue to
    support strong, gusty thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes
    for a few more hours likely requiring a local extension to Tornado
    Watch #321. The need for additional watches downstream, however,
    remain uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...Two main bands of convection remain ongoing across the
    region, with one moving out of west-central Illinois into northwest
    Indiana, and another moving across Lower Michigan. Although both
    bands of thunderstorms have trended more linear in nature the last
    hour, supercellular-like structures remain embedded within the line
    -- especially across Lower Michigan.=20

    Across Lower Michigan, the kinematic environment ahead of the line
    remains favorable for low-level rotation, as the KDTX VAD indicates
    strong low-level shear (greater than 30 knots in the surface to 1km
    layer) within a veering-with-height wind profile (0-1KM SRH 220
    m2/s2). This favorable wind field will support at least transient
    low-level circulations for the next couple of hours.

    Farther south, thunderstorms continue to move east-northeast out of
    Illinois into northwest Indiana. Although low-level wind fields are
    less favorable than farther north, deep-layer wind shear remains
    sufficient to support thunderstorm updraft organization and the
    organizational low-level circulation. Over the next few hours, these thunderstorms should move east of the better deep-layer shear and a
    transition to a more outflow dominant/wind threat. However, given
    the very moist airmass in place and low LCLs, a couple of tornadoes
    will still be possible. Areas downstream of Tornado Watch 321 will
    continue to be monitored for future watch needs.

    ..Marsh.. 06/26/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q_wa0S4lF-YYyGhT-BZOnmVkHqXWPU5Yt5Aaj8-ca2efpgJbYVvVcocWMdJS0gdqyfBrkdAf$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41648738 43858548 44888309 44618210 43278211 41808332
    41018457 39708684 39238811 39278855 39588914 40728831

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