• Pacific-EN: Enrique D7

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 26 18:02:00 2021
    WTPZ45 KNHC 262058
    TCDEP5

    Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 7
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021
    400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

    Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The
    hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of
    an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry
    air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner
    core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also
    be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the
    cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite
    estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The
    latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70
    kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity
    of 75 kt for this advisory.

    Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated
    motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As
    discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the
    northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm
    weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four
    Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is
    more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are
    some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and
    HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE
    consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for
    the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting
    a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that
    direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the
    forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast
    with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any
    additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane
    watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or
    tomorrow.

    Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent
    disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its
    eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance
    indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little
    earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative
    factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased
    from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little
    additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward
    motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional
    dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to
    lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter
    portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below
    26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating
    into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the
    forecast.

    Key Messages:

    1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
    across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
    which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
    mudslides.

    2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
    southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
    Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.

    3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
    southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
    could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
    12H 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
    24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
    36H 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
    48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
    60H 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    72H 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
    120H 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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