• Pac-NW: STS Champi R20

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat Jun 26 18:00:00 2021
    WTPQ30 RJTD 261800
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 2105 CHAMPI (2105)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    STS CHAMPI IS LOCATED AT 28.3N, 140.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
    UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
    SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
    WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
    SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
    AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
    INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM
    WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    INCLUDING GSM.
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